Uncategorized – Save Learning

What’s the Present Value of Your Accumulated Savings?

save-learning — Tue, 04 Mar 2025 08:06:34 +0000

If
you are not an actuary, you may not be familiar with present values.
This basic actuarial concept is integral to determining your Funded
Status (the present value of your household assets/sources of income
divided by the present value of your future expected spending) using the
Actuarial Financial Planner (AFP) workbooks available on this website.
By entering relevant information in the input section of our
spreadsheets, the AFPs will calculate your present values and your
Funded Status.A present value (or current value) is the
discounted value (using an assumed discount rate, or rates) of a future
payment or stream of payments determined as of a specified date (the
valuation date). In the AFP spreadsheets, the discount rate used to
calculate present values is the assumed rate of investment return for
either risky assets/investments (Upside Portfolio) or non-risky
assets/investments (Floor Portfolio). The current default Floor
Portfolio discount rate is 5% and the current default Upside Portfolio
discount rate is 8%. Some household assets/investments may not be
either 100% or 0% risky and some spending liabilities may not be 100%
or 0% essential. In these situations, the discount rate will be adjusted
to reflect the percentage Upside for the specific asset/investment or
the percentage Essential for the specific expense. For example, a
default discount rate of 6.5% will be used to discount future asset
investment payment streams that are inputted as 50% Upside or expenses
that are inputted as 50% Essential, a 7.25% discount rate will be used
for an asset/investment inputted as 75% Upside and a 5.75% discount rate
will be used for an expense that is inputted as 75% Essential.
Discounting future payments in this manner to determine present values
is consistent with the two-bucket approach discussed in our post of November 5, 2023.From time to time, we are asked how the present
value of one’s household portfolio (Accumulated Savings) is calculated.
When we reply that it is simply the current value of the household’s
portfolio, we sometimes receive some push-back. Those who push back
sometimes argue that the discounted present value of the future stream
of payments that can be generated from their accumulated savings should
be greater than the current value of their accumulated savings. Others
suggest that in addition to including the current value of accumulated
savings in the present value of their assets/investments, they should
also add the expected future income generated by such accumulated
savings as “other income.” To these folks, we say, don’t double count
your assets, just input your current accumulated savings in the
appropriate cell, and this value will be included in the present value
of your assets.Let’s take a look at an example of why you should
simply enter the current value of your accumulated savings in the
appropriate input cell called “accumulated savings.”ExampleLet’s
assume Bill has $1,000,000 of accumulated savings that he has
determined is invested 60% in risky investments and 40% in non-risky
investments. Let’s also assume that Bill is using the default investment
return assumptions, so his accumulated savings are expected, under the
default assumptions, to generate annual income of $68,000 per annum 6.8%
per annum (.6 X .08 + .4 X .05) X $1,000,000] at the end of each year
if he does not touch his $1,000,000 principal. Let’s also assume that
Bill plans to do this for 30 years and cash in his $1,000,000 principal
at the end of the 30 years. We can use the AFP to determine the present
value of this stream of payments by using the other income cells and
inputting the following amountsNameAmountDeferral PeriodPayment PeriodAnnual Rate of Increase% UpsideOther inc. #1$68,0001300%60%Other inc. #2$1,000,0003010%60%The
PV Calcs tab shows us that the present value of the Other inc. #1
payments above is $861,049 and the present value of the Other inc. #2 is
$138,951 for a total of $1,000,000, the same present value as obtained
by simply inputting the current value of the accumulated savings. This
same result would be unchanged for other periods of deferral and assumed
investment returns (where the discount rate is set equal to the assumed
investment return).If Bill enters the above payment streams in
addition to entering the current value of his accumulated savings, he
would be double counting this asset. Therefore, we recommend that users
simply enter their accumulated savings in the appropriate cell and not
enter amounts relative to accumulated savings in other income cells.
Following this procedure will result in the correct amount being
included in the present value of household assets

The Main Ways To Avoid Getting Into Debt

save-learning — Tue, 04 Mar 2025 02:58:08 +0000

A lot of people get into debt from time to time, and it’s the kind of thing that you are always going to find really important to try and understand. The truth is that getting into debt can be avoided for most people, and that largely it’s a case of just having a good plan and knowing what you can do to get around it. Debt needs to be understood if it is to be avoided, and this is something that we are going to consider in this article.

In this post, we’ll take a look at the main things that you can do to avoid getting into debt. As long as you are doing at least some of the following, you’ll find that you are so much less likely to get into any debt at all, and that the debt you do have can be easily paid off and overcome. So let’s take a look and see what might be involved here.
Stick To Your Budget
One of the best tools you can have in general when you are trying to keep your finances in check is your budget. As long as you have a strong budget and you are sticking to it, this is the kind of thing that is going to help you a lot. It will mean you know exactly what you need to spend and that you have enough coming in to be able to do so. That’s a really useful situation to be in, and it’s the kind of thing that you are always going to be able to consider. So make sure that you are doing all you can to set up a budget that makes sense, but also to stick to it as best as you can.
There might be times when you deviate from it, and times when you find that you need to change the budget, but generally if you are able to stick to it you will find that this helps a great deal, so do whatever you can to stick to your budget firmly, even if that means occasionally having to adapt it a little. If you can do that, you’ll find that it really helps you a lot and that you are going to avoid a lot of debt this way.

Pic Source – CCO License
Research Loan Options
When you are in a position where you think you do need to take out a loan, you’ll want to make sure that you are fully aware of what your options are, and that you are following along with this as well as you can. Having a good sense of the different loan options that are out there will mean that you can make the most informed decision, and just having done that will often result in a lot less debt and a much better ability to pay off any debt that you might accrue. So this is something that you should certainly make sure you are thinking about.
Whenever you are considering a loan or line of credit for anything, make sure that you do your research as thoroughly as you can. This is going to make a huge difference and will mean that you are so much more likely to actually avoid debt overall, and it’s amazing what this can really do for you. So research could be one of the main ways you avoid debt in your life at all.
One thing you need to be aware of specifically with loans of various kinds is what the small print says, because there are very often going to be things that you will need to be aware of here. Sometimes people get mis-sold loans and they end up needing to claim PCP refunds or whatever else, and obviously you would rather not be mis-sold a loan in the first place. So you might want to make sure you have really thoroughly checked, as well as looking into the lender to see whether they have a history of mis-selling loans. If so, you should avoid them at all costs, for the sake of your own financial wellbeing.

Pic Source – CCO License
Limit Credit Cards
Credit cards are one of the most common kinds of debt that people have, and they are an all too easy way to find yourself in a lot of debt. So if you are going to try and avoid getting into debt generally, you’ll want to make sure that you are limiting your credit card usage as best as you can. The best way to do that is to keep to a minimum the number of cards you have in the first place. If you have done that, you are going to be less tempted to use them, and this is going to mean that you are going to have so much less debt in your life in general.
Similarly, you should take great care to keep the credit limit of each card you do have as small as possible. If you can do that, it’s going to mean that your debt is so much lower on the whole and that you are in a much healthier financial situation generally. So this is something that you should certainly make sure you are aware of if you are going to try and avoid debt as much as you possibly can.
Make Minimum Payments
Finally, you should make sure that you are always making any minimum payments you may have on any debt you have outstanding. This is the bare minimum you should do, and it’s something that is going to help you to avoid whatever kind of situation you might be in. If you can manage to make the minimum payments, your debt won’t spiral out of control, and you will be able to ensure that you are avoiding too much interest as well.
Those are just some of the main ways to avoid getting into debt, and they are absolutely worth thinking about in turn.

Precious Metals or Crypto: Which is the Smarter Investment?

save-learning — Sat, 01 Mar 2025 04:28:41 +0000

In the evolving landscape of investment options, both cryptocurrencies and precious metals have captured significant attention. Each offers unique benefits, appealing to different types of investors. In this article, we’ll explore the strengths of both investment types, compare them directly, and help you determine which might be the smarter choice for your financial goals.

The Appeal of Cryptocurrency
Cryptocurrencies have revolutionised the investment world with their innovative approach to finance. Here are some compelling reasons to consider investing in them:
Rapid Growth Potential
One of the most attractive features of cryptocurrencies is their potential for rapid growth. Early investors in Bitcoin and Ethereum have witnessed remarkable returns, making cryptocurrencies a highly appealing option for those seeking high-risk, high-reward opportunities. The decentralised nature of these digital assets means they are not controlled by any single entity, offering a hedge against political instability and traditional financial systems.
Technological Innovation
Cryptocurrencies are underpinned by blockchain technology, which has wide-ranging applications beyond just digital currencies. Blockchain’s promise of transparency, security, and decentralisation has the potential to disrupt various industries, from finance to supply chain management. Investing in cryptocurrencies allows you to be part of this technological revolution, with the possibility of high returns driven by the growth and adoption of blockchain technology.
Market Accessibility
The cryptocurrency market is accessible to investors worldwide, with a relatively low barrier to entry. This accessibility allows investors to participate in the market with smaller amounts of capital compared to traditional investments. Moreover, the 24/7 nature of the cryptocurrency market provides flexibility and the ability to react quickly to market movements.
The Appeal of Precious Metals
Precious metals, including gold, silver, platinum, rhodium, and palladium, have long been valued as investment assets. Here’s why they remain popular among investors:

Stability and Security
Precious metals are renowned for their stability and security, especially during times of economic uncertainty. Unlike cryptocurrencies, which can be highly volatile, precious metals tend to retain their value and offer a reliable store of wealth. Gold, for example, has been used as a form of currency and value preservation for thousands of years, providing investors with a sense of security.
Tangible Assets
One of the key advantages of investing in precious metals is their tangibility. Unlike digital assets, you can physically hold and store gold, silver, or other metals. This physical presence can offer peace of mind and a sense of security, especially in times of financial instability or market downturns.
Diversification Benefits
Precious metals also offer excellent diversification benefits. They tend to have a low correlation with other asset classes, such as stocks and bonds, making them a valuable addition to a diversified investment portfolio.
By including precious metals, you can choose the best precious metals to invest in to diversify and secure your portfolio. Gold and silver, in particular, are often seen as hedges against inflation and currency devaluation, providing a stable counterbalance to more volatile investments.
Precious Metals vs. Crypto: The Duel
When comparing precious metals and cryptocurrencies, you’ll find distinct trade-offs. Assess which strengths align with your investment goals and be prepared to accept the corresponding risks and limitations of each option.
Growth vs. Stability
Cryptocurrencies offer rapid growth potential and are driven by technological innovation, but they come with high volatility and risk. The market can experience sharp price fluctuations, which may be unsettling for risk-averse investors. Precious metals, on the other hand, provide stability and a proven track record, making them more suitable for those looking for a safer investment with long-term value preservation.
Tangibility vs. Digital Nature
While cryptocurrencies offer the benefits of decentralisation and technological advancement, they lack the tangible security of precious metals. The ability to physically hold and store precious metals can be reassuring, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty when digital assets may be more susceptible to scams, such as rug pulls, and regulatory changes.
Diversification and Security
Precious metals score higher in terms of diversification benefits and security. Their historical role as a store of value and their lower correlation with other asset classes make them a solid choice for diversifying your investment portfolio. In contrast, cryptocurrencies, while innovative, can be highly volatile and subject to issues like rug pulls and scams, making them riskier for long-term investment.
Making the Right Choice
Ultimately, the decision between investing in precious metals or cryptocurrencies depends on your individual financial goals and risk tolerance. Cryptocurrencies offer the allure of rapid growth and technological innovation but with higher volatility and risk. Precious metals provide stability, tangibility, and diversification benefits, making them a more conservative and reliable investment choice.
For many investors, a balanced approach that incorporates both asset types may provide the best of both worlds. By diversifying your portfolio with a mix of cryptocurrencies and precious metals, you can potentially benefit from the growth of digital assets while enjoying the security and stability of traditional investments. As always, thorough research and consultation with financial experts are essential to make informed investment decisions that align with your goals and risk tolerance.

EVENTS // Wallet Activism IRL and Virtual Book Tour – Our Next Life by Tanja Hester, author of Work Optional and Wallet Activism

save-learning — Fri, 28 Feb 2025 09:59:34 +0000

So that it’s all together in one place, here is a full rundown of all of the events I’m doing to launch Wallet Activism. I’ll keep this page updated as we add new events and links. All of these events are free, though I hope you’ll consider buying the book from the host store to thank them and to support local, independent bookstores. (That’s itself an act of wallet activism!)

In-Person Event
Tuesday, November 16, 2021, 6 PM PTLaunch Day Event in San Francisco, Green Apple Books on the Park, 1231 9th Ave., San FranciscoVirtual event registration here*Masks required for in-person attendance

Virtual Events
Wednesday, November 17, 2021, 6 PT CTBarbara’s Bookstore (Chicago) virtual event, register here
Thursday, November 18, 2021, 6 PM ETMalaprop’s (Asheville, NC) virtual event, RSVP here
Saturday, November 20, 2020, 9 AM PT/12 PM ET/5 PM GMT/18:00 CETVirtual Launch Party for Preorderers (instructions to get link below)
November 22, 2021, 7 PM ETGibson’s Bookstore (Concord, NH), virtual event, register here
November 30, 2021, 7 PM MTRediscovered Books (Boise, ID) virtual event, register here
Wednesday, January 12, 2022, 7 PM ETBooks & Books (Miami, FL) with Miami Climate Alliance
Thursday, January 13, 2022, 6 PM MTBookBar (Denver, CO)
Tuesday, January 18, 2022, 6 PM MTOld Firehouse Books (Fort Collins, CO) with Amanda Holden of Dumpster Dog
Review and Library Request Drawing Entries
To get entered into the virtual hangout drawing (see below), send screenshots of your reviews of Wallet Activism and library requests for it to WALLETACTIVISM at GMAIL dot com. (Written that way to prevent spam overload.) The drawing will be held in early January 2022.
Virtual one-on-one drawings:
We’ll be doing a drawing in January for ten hourlong virtual hangouts with me, which you can use however you want – we can just chat, I can talk to your bookclub, or whatever you’d prefer. Here is how you can get entries into the drawing:
Reviews — One entry for every review you leave (for example, one for reviewing on Amazon, one for reviewing on Goodreads, etc.).
Library requests – One entry for every copy you request from your library (for example, one drawing for requesting the ebook, one for requesting the physical copy), and if you have a library card at multiple libraries, you can potentially accrue quite a few entries this way.
Preorders – One entry for every copy of the book you preordered. (You’re also entitled to other bonuses, so email your receipt if you preordered but didn’t send it in.)
Independent bookstore – Bonus entry if you preordered from an indie bookstore or Bookshop.org.

Would Enacting the Hoyer/Primus Proposal “Fix” Social Security?

save-learning — Wed, 26 Feb 2025 20:41:10 +0000

In early January, Social Security’s retiring Chief Actuary, Steve Goss, released an actuarial valuation of a proposal
intended to improve the solvency of the Social Security trust funds
based on 2024 valuation results and intermediate assumptions. The
request for the proposal valuation was submitted by Rep. Steny Hoyer
(D-MD) and economist Dr. Wendell Primus, and therefore is referred to in
this post as the Hoyer/Primus proposal. The proposal includes a total
of 17 provisions that would affect the system’s finances. Some of the
more significant proposal provisions would increase system revenues
while other significant proposal provisions would generally decrease
system benefits.This post will not analyze or comment on (with
one exception) any of the specific proposed changes. Nor will we provide
our thoughts on the likelihood of this proposal passing in the near
future (unlikely). Instead, we will simply discuss whether enactment of
the Hoyer/Primus proposal would fix the system. In brief, while the
proposal would definitely improve Social Security’s solvency, it should
not be considered as a “fix” for 75 years or any specific period.In his analysis of the Hoyer/Primus proposal, Mr. Goss said,“Assuming
enactment of the proposal, we estimate that the combined Social
Security Trust Fund would be fully solvent (able to pay all scheduled
benefits in full on a timely basis) throughout the 75-year projection
period, under the baseline intermediate assumptions of the 2024 Trustees
Report plus effects of the proposal. In addition, under this proposal
the OASDI program wouldmeet the further conditions for sustainable
solvency, because projected combined trust fund reserves would be
growing as a percentage of the annual cost of the program at the end of
the long-range period.”The 2024 long-range actuarial balance
based on system provisions as of January 1, 2024 and the intermediate
assumptions was -3.5% of taxable payroll. As indicated in our post of November 17, 2024,
this long-range actuarial deficit is equivalent to a Funded Status
(Assets/Liabilities) of 77.4%. The annual balance projected for the 75th year of the valuation period was -4.64% of taxable payroll projected for that year. Mr.
Goss and his actuarial staff determined that the changes in the
Hoyer/Primus proposal would increase the 2024 long-range actuarial
balance by 3.63% of taxable payroll and would also increase the annual
balance projected for the 75th year of the valuation period
by 4.66% of taxable payroll for that year. Therefore, as noted by Mr.
Goss above, if the changes were adopted, the system would be considered
to be “sustainably solvent” as of January 1, 2024 based on the Trustee’s
intermediate assumptions. There is no guarantee, however, that the
system would remain sustainably solvent in subsequent years. Expressed
in terms of the funded status measurement we advocate for households,
the changes would increase the system’s Funded Status from 77.4% to
something close to 100%.The determination of sustainably solvency
is a snapshot determination based on a comparison of system assets and
liabilities as of January 1, 2024. It is not a long-term fix any more
than it would be for a household that took steps to increase its funded
status from 77.4% to 100%. Future years can involve experience less
favorable than assumed, changes in assumptions or changes in benefit
provisions (like current proposals to eliminate taxation of Social
Security benefits as a source of system income). Therefore, it is simply
inappropriate to indicate that the Hoyer/Primus proposal, “restores
Social Security’s finances not only for the next 75 year but for decades
thereafter” as indicated in this Market Watch article.Kudos
to Rep. Hoyer and Dr. Primus for designing system changes that achieve
not just long-range actuarial balance but also sustainable solvency. It
is too bad that the 1983 Amendments to the system only restored the
long-range actuarial balance at that time but ignored the concept of
sustainable solvency and the large annual deficits projected for years
after the 75-year projection period. This was a mistake that the
Hoyer/Primus proposal attempts to correct. However, to be truly
successful, the next round of reform also needs to incorporate some type
of adjustment process (guardrails) to automatically keep the system in
(or close to) long-range actuarial balance each year in the future.While
promising to avoid commenting on specific provisions in the
Hoyer/Primus proposal, I do note that a significant source of additional
OASDI revenue is assumed to come from transfer of taxation of benefits
income currently allocated to the HI Trust Fund. In my opinion, this is
analogous to robbing Peter to pay Paul and will only worsen the funding
problem for the HI system. SummaryAs we
all know, the future is unlikely to be as assumed. Therefore, it is
totally unrealistic to proclaim that a package of system changes enacted
in the near future will guarantee system solvency over a period of 75
years or more. We only need to look at the experience of the system over
the past 41 years, since enactment of the 1983 Amendments that were
supposed to “fix” the system for 75 years at the time. It only took
about 7 years for the long-range actuarial balance achieved in the 1983
Amendments to disappear.

Navigating the Car-Pawn Financing Process in Today’s Market

save-learning — Tue, 25 Feb 2025 07:41:34 +0000

In an evolving financial landscape, car-pawn financing has emerged as a practical solution for individuals seeking short-term liquidity. This unique loan option leverages your vehicle’s value to provide quick access to funds without the lengthy approval processes associated with traditional loans. Here’s how to navigate the car-pawn financing process and make the most of this flexible funding option.
Understanding Car-Pawn Loans
Car-pawn loans allow borrowers to use their vehicle as collateral to secure a loan. The amount you can borrow is determined by the value of your car, assessed based on its make, model, age, and condition. Unlike unsecured loans, this type of financing prioritises the asset over your credit score, making it a viable option for individuals with limited or poor credit histories.
A key term in car pawn financing is the Lien Title, which refers to the legal right the lender has over the vehicle until the loan is fully repaid. This ensures the lender’s security while enabling borrowers to retain possession of their car during the loan period, as long as repayments are made on time.
Evaluating Your Vehicle’s Value
The first step in the car-pawn financing process is having your vehicle appraised. Lenders will assess factors such as:

Current market value
Mileage and wear-and-tear
Service history and roadworthiness

This appraisal determines the maximum loan amount available to you. For example, vehicles in excellent condition or with high resale value typically attract more substantial loan offers. Borrowers should prepare to present necessary documents, including proof of ownership and insurance, to streamline the valuation process.
The Application Process
Applying for a car pawn loan is straightforward compared to traditional loan applications. Many lenders, prioritise simplicity and speed, enabling you to secure funds quickly. The process typically involves:

Submitting basic personal and vehicle information online or in person.
Receiving an initial loan offer based on your vehicle’s value.
Signing an agreement outlining loan terms, repayment schedules, and interest rates.

Reputable lenders provide transparent terms, ensuring you understand your obligations before finalising the loan. For more information about trusted lenders, visit SCWcars.com.au for guidance tailored to your needs.

Flexible Repayment Options
One of the benefits of car pawn loans is the flexibility in repayment schedules. Borrowers can often customise repayment terms to align with their financial situation, reducing the stress of meeting fixed monthly payments. These short-term loans typically range from one to three months, although extensions may be available depending on the lender’s policies.
It’s crucial to stay on top of repayments to avoid defaulting on the loan. Failure to repay could result in the lender exercising their lien rights and repossessing the vehicle.
Lower Barriers to Approval
Traditional loans often involve extensive credit checks and strict eligibility criteria, causing delays in accessing essential funds. This can be frustrating for those in urgent financial situations who need quick solutions. Car-pawn loans, however, focus on your vehicle’s value as collateral, lowering approval barriers and allowing faster access to funds compared to conventional lending. Since the loan is secured against your car, lenders face less risk, resulting in more favourable terms. In fact, interest rates for car pawn loans are often more competitive than those for unsecured loans, making this a more affordable option for many borrowers who struggle with traditional financing.
Navigating Today’s Market Trends
In today’s rapidly changing financial landscape, the demand for flexible and fast loan options has surged. Car pawn loans have gained popularity for their adaptability, effectively meeting the needs of borrowers across various income levels and credit histories. This flexibility allows a wider range of individuals to secure the financing they need for emergencies, unexpected expenses, or planned investments.
Digital platforms have streamlined the loan process, making online applications and virtual appraisals the norm, providing the convenience and efficiency that borrowers appreciate. Many lenders now offer personalised consultations to help borrowers understand their options and make informed decisions based on their unique financial situations. These consultations are invaluable, allowing borrowers to ask questions and clarify any uncertainties about the loan process. Staying informed about market trends and lender policies is essential, ensuring you secure the best possible terms and a positive borrowing experience.
Conclusion
Car-pawn financing offers a fast, flexible, and accessible way to secure short-term funds while retaining possession of your vehicle. By understanding the process, from vehicle valuation to repayment, borrowers can confidently navigate this financing option. Reputable lenders prioritise transparency and efficiency, making it easier than ever to access funds. Explore your options and take the first step towards financial flexibility today.

Social Safety Financing—When You’re in a Gap, Cease Digging Half 2

save-learning — Mon, 24 Feb 2025 08:17:45 +0000

It is a follow-up to our publish of October 14, 2024.
On this follow-up publish, we are going to estimate Social Safety’s January 1,
2025 Funded Standing primarily based on 2024 valuation outcomes and as soon as once more level
out that now might be an excellent time for our congressional
representatives to be taking a look at methods to extend system revenues and/or
lower system advantages to enhance the system’s Funded Standing somewhat
than taking a look at methods to extend system advantages and/or lower system
revenues.In our publish of October 14. 2024, we reformatted the info
from Desk IV B6 of the 2024 OASDI Trustees Report back to develop an
actuarial stability sheet and Funded Standing just like the actuarial
stability sheet and funded standing willpower we suggest as a funding
metric for retired households, as follows:Social Safety’s Actuarial Stability Sheet as of January 1, 2024 (in Billions)Property Liabilities Belief Fund Stability$2,788PV Advantages and Bills$116,701PV Future Payroll Taxes$84,494PV Ending Goal Fund$1,232PV Future Taxation of Advantages Revenue$6,800Balancing Merchandise (unfunded legal responsibility)$(23,850)Complete Property$94,082Total Liabilities$94.082Funded Standing (Property/Liabilities)  79.8percentAmounts
don’t add to totals because of rounding. The PV of future payroll taxes
consists of $1 billion in transfers from Basic Revenues. We
estimated Social Safety’s Funded Standing as of January 1, 2025 utilizing
the identical 2024 information and adjusting the 2024 liabilities for our estimate
of:The anticipated actuarial loss ensuing from the change within the 75-year projection interval from 2024 to 2025, andThe improve in system liabilities ensuing from passage of the Social Safety Equity ActBased
on estimates by the Congressional Funds Workplace (CBO), we estimated the
current worth of the rise in system liabilities related to
passage of the Social Safety Equity Act to be about $700 billion.
Based mostly on historic actuarial losses ensuing from passage of time, we
estimated the actuarial loss for 2024 (assuming no different features or losses
or adjustments in assumptions) to be about $350 billion, for a complete
improve in system liabilities calculated in 2024 of about $1,050
billion.Growing the system liabilities within the actuarial
stability sheet above by $1,050 billion would drop the system’s funded
standing from 79.8% to 79.1%. It could additionally improve the system’s
unfunded legal responsibility by $1,050 billion, which might drop the system’s
75-year long-range actuarial stability from -3.50% of taxable payroll to
-3.65% of payroll.   And you will need to do not forget that each of those
metrics are anticipated to deteriorate annually even when all actuarial
assumptions are realized (and neither assumptions nor advantages are
modified) solely due to make use of of a distinct 75-year projection interval in
the calculations (referred to in prior posts because the “valuation date
creep”).Okay, primarily based on these estimated 2025 metrics, we will see
that Social Safety is in a financing gap. This isn’t huge information. To
get a distinct perspective of the scale of the opening, nonetheless, let’s
suppose by way of how a lot the present tax price (mixed
employer/worker) must be elevated to convey the system’s
funded standing measured over the following 75 years again as much as 100%. If
enacted on January 1, 2025 with no different adjustments, the rise would
need to be 3.65% of taxable payroll for a complete mixed
employer/worker tax price of 16.05% (a 29% improve).However wait,
President Trump and others have advocated ceasing future taxation of
Social Safety advantages. What would enactment of such a provision do
the above estimate 2025 funded standing metrics and the tax improve that
can be required to be enacted to convey the system’s funded standing again
to 100%? By subtracting the current worth of future taxation income
from the belongings within the exhibit above, we developed an estimated 2025
Funded Standing of 73.4% or a 75-year long-term actuarial stability of
-4.65%. If enacted on January 1, 2025 with no different adjustments, the
improve within the payroll tax price to attain a 100% Funded Standing would
need to be 4.65% of taxable payroll for a complete mixed
employer/worker tax price of 17.05% of taxable payroll (virtually a 38%
improve).However wait once more, would enactment of those increased tax
charges (16.05% with no change in present taxation of advantages or 17.05%
with no future taxation of advantages) repair the system for 75 years? Not
possible. It could improve the system’s measure funded standing to 100%
primarily based on the Trustees assumptions for the following 75 years, however these
metrics are simply snapshot measures that may change from yr to yr
primarily based on precise expertise, assumption adjustments and enacted system
adjustments.   And as famous above, the 75-year projection interval ignores
increased profit liabilities after the tip of the 75-year projection
interval which can be anticipated to generate actuarial losses annually below
the present profit and tax construction. As well as, the assumptions for
the following 75 years could also be optimistic. CBO, for instance, believes that
they’re, and of their 75-year projection for 2024, they developed a
75-year long-range deficit of 4.3% of taxable payroll vs. the Trustees
deficit of three.5% of taxable payroll.As famous in our publish of February 3, 2025,
even when system adjustments fulfill the necessities for “sustainable
solvency” (a extra stringent funding standing metric designed to deal with
the 75-year valuation date creep inherent within the long-range actuarial
stability metric), would this repair the system for any particular interval of
time (i.e., 75 years or longer)? As soon as once more, the reply sadly
can also be no as a result of the sustainable solvency metric can also be a snapshot
metric (just like the Funded Standing metric we suggest for retired
households) whose accuracy relies on the accuracy of the following 75
years of Trustees assumptions. With out enactment of some sort of
algorithm (guardrails) to keep up a 100% Funded Standing over time, there
will likely be no true repair for the system.SummaryFrom
a long-term perspective, Social Safety funding is in a fairly large
gap. Sure. It additionally has a short-term money movement drawback that additionally ought to
be addressed, however now’s clearly not the time to enact system
provisions that both improve advantages or lower revenues with out
regard to consideration of the long-term affect on system solvency.

Choosing an Offline Life – Our Next Life by Tanja Hester, author of Work Optional and Wallet Activism

save-learning — Mon, 24 Feb 2025 08:16:58 +0000

These days it’s hard to believe that for years I blogged here twice a week, like clockwork. While working 80+ hours a week and in the later months also podcasting. Somehow I also saw friends sometimes. And I responded to hundreds of comments a month!
These days I barely respond to email. And it has been actual years, two whole years to the day, since I posted anything here. I haven’t been writing and posting elsewhere, nor have I been working on a new book. I’ve simply been occupied with my life now, a life that looks a lot different from in the past. I think I’ve actually, finally achieved that “next life” I was seeking.
Stepping Away from My Online Life
Even though I wasn’t blogging over the past couple of years, I was still participating in the internet, sharing updates on Twitter until Elon took it over, and also on Instagram (which autoposts to Facebook, even though I rarely logged on there) and a few on Threads. But in 2023, something changed for me. I found myself wanting to post less often. The voice in the back of my head that chided, “You haven’t blogged in months. You really ought to write something,” got quieter, and then went silent. And that impulse I’ve felt for years to stay relevant by staying present on the internet began to fade.
Maybe it was realizing that there wasn’t a third book demanding to burst forth out of me, and therefore having an “engaged audience” wasn’t serving any purpose other than ego. Maybe it was feeling discouraged by the devolution of online discourse and knowing that nothing I can say will change anything. (I know that losing Twitter as it used to be and watching it turn rotten was a blow, and I miss interacting with my friends there. I think I actually did mourn the loss for a while.) For sure some of it was having had a few off-putting parasocial experiences happen over the years, making me want to be less open with people who don’t actually know me, something that hurt a lot because I believe that the vast majority of people are awesome, especially in this community, and my inclination is always to share freely in hopes that it will help someone else. (Also because I’m not and never have been famous.) Certainly some of it was my growing frustration at seeing everyone else get to live a back-to-normal life while I still have to live in a COVID bubble, at least until Anthem Blue Cross stops fighting me and my doctors and covers Pemgarda already. And maybe it was seeing how much more I could accomplish in other parts of my life if I removed the time suck of the internet, especially social media. Of course it was a bit of all of them.
But at the start of 2024, I not only stopped posting on social media (which I had actually stopped doing back in September 2023, save for one little post on Instagram in January), I stopped engaging with social media altogether. I stopped opening the apps entirely. I would have deleted them from my phone but found that I was only really using my phone as a camera (and for Spelling Bee… we all need one vice). Aside from keeping up my Duolingo streak and playing Wordle and Spelling Bee on the New York Times app, I stopped engaging with whole swaths of the internet. I traded podcasts for audiobooks. I stopped looking at email most days. I read news headlines a few times a week (because I still believe strongly that a low-information diet is bad on several levels, and we have a responsibility to be engaged with society), but I stopped trying to keep up with all the news.
But most of all, at least for now, I changed my relationship with the internet. I decided that the relationship I want in this season of life isn’t two-way. I’m not yearning for page views and likes and proof of engagement, as I often have in the past, rewards the internet sends my way because I’ve put enough of myself out there to earn those things. I want a relationship that’s only one-way. The internet gives me information when I want it, and I give nothing in return.
The Result
I have not achieved enlightenment, nor discovered the meaning of life. Mostly stepping away from the internet is not magic. But I do feel a bit better overall, the state of the world notwithstanding. I think that’s mostly attributable to:

Getting less agitated day to day by online goings-on that aren’t important in the big picture, bringing my life drama level down to nearly zero.
Making more time for healthy hobbies I enjoy, especially gardening and playing with the dogs.
Having more time to dedicate to my schoolwork, resulting in learning much more. (More on this below.)
Dedicating vastly more time to making visual art, which is the thing I feel most called to do now. I haven’t been writing, which would feel odd as a lifelong writer except that I have a different and perhaps better outlet for everything I used to put into my writing.

Stepping back from an online life has given me more time for the things I actually want to fill my days with (no one wants to look back at the end of life and say, “I spent a lot of time doomscrolling social media”). That’s absolutely the best part. Second best is silencing that voice telling me that I should be sharing more, and recalibrating my brain to be happy without the validation of strangers.
But there’s a negative side, too, that’s entirely social. I miss seeing what friends are up to. I’ve missed learning about important life events, because most people only share those things on social media these days, a change that makes sense when everyone is on social. Stepping away from social media has become a misanthropic act, and with the algorithms pushing so many ads onto our feeds, there’s no limited use of social media that will let a person stay up-to-date with friends and family. If I log on once every other week, Instagram is going to give me mostly junk posts from people I don’t follow, not give me a greatest hits of people I actually care about. There’s no easy solution for this.
Life Today
So what would I share on social media if I were posting today? The only thing that’s actually important: We’re good! Mark is great. I’ll be great once my health insurance fight ends, I finally get good COVID protection and I can start pretending to be a normal person again. We celebrated 10 years with Pico this past March (making him 12-14ish), and though he’s slowing down a bit, he’s still his goofy self, and Milo who’s been with us 3 1/2 years continues to be goofy in his different way.
Two things I’m especially proud of:

I just graduated with my certificate of achievement in German language, after completing 10 semester-long German classes, and now feel decently functional in this devilish language. (German-speakers are always proud when you note how difficult their language is.) I can now use my recently discovered German citizenship without shame of being unable to speak the language. If you ever get a chance to walk in a graduation ceremony, but think, “Nah, what I did isn’t a big deal,” knock that thought out of your head and opt in. Yes, I already have a technically fancier degree, but my community college experience was amazing, participating in graduation let me tell a bunch of people that, and I got to see how much a student getting an AA meant to a lot of families, which was super special. I’ve had amazing experiences at Sierra College, Diablo Valley College, LA Valley College, Citrus College, Berkeley City College, Santa Monica College and several more, and if you have any urge to learn more and expand your horizons, DO IT. Find the time however you must. It’s so, so worth it.

And related, I won an award for visual art at one of the colleges I attend, and I’ll get a gallery exhibition in the fall. Perhaps I’ll share details about it in the fall, perhaps not. ;-) I’ll see how I’m feeling about sharing then.
What’s Next?
It’s conceivable I could blog again, and I probably will share updates on social media again, I’m just not sure when or how often. The best bets for broad updates are to follow me on Instagram (which autoposts to Facebook) and Threads. (I also plan to share visual art updates on Cara, a new social network for artists that I just joined today, so I don’t have a lot there yet, but it seems like a place where I can pop in extremely occasionally and share some things. But it’s new so who knows!)
The email accompanying this post will be my last for a while, perhaps ever, because blast email services are stupidly expensive and it makes no sense to pay for that when I’m not selling something. (Though if you’ve ever found value in my work and the fact that I’ve never once subjected you to an ad or sponsored post, it’s not too late to buy one of my books as a way to say thanks — WALLET ACTIVISM – physical book on Bookshop.org – physical or ebook on Amazon – audiobook on Audible – more ways to buy // WORK OPTIONAL – physical book on Bookshop.org – physical or ebook on Amazon – audiobook on Audible – more ways to buy. Big thanks, as always, to those of you who’ve supported my work over the years by buying books!)
I’ll occasionally update my personal site with more art (it’s currently a bit outdated, owing to my internet absence, but I’ll try to get that updated soon), so you can check in there if you feel inclined.
But otherwise, I’ll just be doing my best to live a life that feels worthwhile to the private version of me, not the public one. I’m grateful to those who’ve engaged with the public me over the years and made my book dreams come true. Truly, thank you! If I can now return the favor and inspire you to be a little less public, and a little less online, we’ll all be just a little better off.

School Rankings

save-learning — Fri, 05 May 2023 00:53:20 +0000

School Rankings

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save-learning — Thu, 04 May 2023 15:18:12 +0000

School Spotlight